After Oil: The Electrification Era Has Already Begun

by Dan Roscoe, CEO of Roswall

Electrification is moving from promise to plumbing, and the systems that deliver clean power now matter more than the fuels they replace.

The transition is underway at scale. Demand curves are bending as entire sectors that once drove oil growth level off, while electricity use accelerates in transport, heating, and industry. For policymakers, investors, and communities, the priority is connecting abundant renewable supply to the markets that need it, when they need it. The advantage will go to those who can modernize grids, expand transmission, and integrate flexibility at the pace electrification demands.

A chart worth a thousand barrels

The International Energy Agency’s latest oil outlook shows a decisive turn. Global oil demand still nudges higher in the near term, but the growth engine that powered the past century has shifted. Liquid fuels in road transport have already plateaued, while petrochemical feedstocks and aviation shoulder what remains of demand growth.

The IEA now expects total oil demand to level off around 105.5 million barrels per day by the end of this decade, with a small decline in 2030 on today’s policies. In other words, the curve has flattened because substitution is finally beating expansion.

What is driving the decline?

Two forces are doing most of the work. First, electric mobility has reached scale. Electric car sales topped 17 million in 2024 and crossed a 20 percent global market share. China alone sold over 11 million, roughly half of all new cars in the country. The trajectory continues in 2025, placing EVs on track for about a quarter of global car sales and setting up meaningful displacement of gasoline and diesel demand through the decade.

Second, efficiency is compounding the effect. Hybrids squeeze more kilometres out of every litre. Urban policy and congestion pricing reduce unnecessary trips. Behavioural shifts since 2020 persist, with teleworking alone trimming hundreds of thousands of barrels per day of transport fuel versus pre-pandemic patterns. None of these measures makes headlines like a gigafactory ribbon cutting, yet together they lock in lower liquid fuel growth even as people and goods keep moving.

Freight follows. Battery-electric and fuel-cell trucks are moving from pilots to deployment in defined corridors, and depot charging solves early infrastructure hurdles. As fleets electrify and logistics software optimizes routes, diesel’s dominance erodes from the edges inward. The result is not a sudden cliff but a durable headwind for road fuels.

Why this is structural, not a blip

The IEA’s forecast is clear about the mix shift beneath the headline. Road fuels flatten while petrochemicals become the marginal barrel from 2026 onward. Aviation recovers but is capped by relentless efficiency gains. Put together, these dynamics explain why demand plateaus even in a world that still grows. Electrification does not need to replace every litre to bend the curve. It only needs to outpace new demand at the margin, which is exactly what is happening. The same report estimates EVs alone will displace roughly 5.4 million barrels per day of oil by 2030.

The structural signal matters for planners and investors. Refining systems tilt toward jet fuel and flammable liquid hydrocarbon mixture known as naphtha. Upstream projects with long break-evens face timing risk. Power systems see transport, heating, and industry pull more electrons, faster. The centre of gravity moves from molecules to electrons, and the infrastructures that deliver them.

What this means for Canada

Canada’s advantage is clean electricity. Our grids are already among the lowest emitting in the world, anchored by hydro and nuclear, and now scaling wind and solar. Ottawa’s Clean Electricity Regulations, finalized in December 2024, set a pathway to a net-zero grid by 2050 while building in reliability and affordability flexibilities for provinces. The companion Clean Electricity Strategy frames the job ahead plainly. Demand will rise significantly as transportation, buildings, and industry electrify, so the country must expand and modernize systems at pace and scale.

That expansion is underway, but it needs to accelerate and coordinate. Federal programs and financing tools now exceed 60 billion dollars to help provinces build generation, transmission, and smarter distribution. Recent announcements in Atlantic Canada added close to 16 million dollars for grid modernization and clean-power projects across Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and New Brunswick. These are steps in the right direction because the bottlenecks are increasingly on the wires, not the turbines or panels.

For regions like Atlantic Canada, the opportunity is bigger than local decarbonization. Stronger interties and modern distribution networks make the region a strategic hub for balancing variable renewables, integrating storage, and supporting industrial growth tied to clean power. As the marginal barrel shifts to petrochemicals and jet fuel abroad, the marginal investment at home should shift to the grid that enables electrification at least cost.

Why Roswall is focused on infrastructure, not just generation

Generation matters. It is also no longer sufficient on its own. Renewables are only as valuable as the grid that can move and shape their output when customers need it. This is why Roswall’s strategy prioritizes the connective tissue of the energy transition.

First, interconnection reform. We advocate for transparent, time-bound queues that prioritize ready-to-build clean capacity and align with provincial electrification targets. Projects should move based on maturity and system value, not just application timestamp. The cost of delay is real for consumers and investors.

Second, targeted transmission. New lines and reinforcements should unlock the highest quality renewable zones and reduce curtailment risk. Strategic interties add resilience and lower overall system costs by sharing resources across regions. Planning needs to look at the whole system, not single assets in isolation.

Third, distribution system modernization. Hosting capacity maps, advanced metering, and distribution-level automation allow more distributed energy resources to connect faster and operate safely. That includes community-scale solar, storage, and managed charging for EVs. Smarter distribution makes every new kilowatt of demand and supply more valuable.

Fourth, flexibility everywhere. Non-wires solutions like demand response, virtual power plants, and storage can defer expensive upgrades and improve reliability. In a world of rising electric load, flexibility is the cheapest new capacity you can build.

Across Roswall’s portfolio, we design projects for the load shapes we are entering, not the ones we are exiting. That means thinking about evening peaks in high-EV neighbourhoods, winter heating electrification in colder provinces, and the industrial customers whose growth plans now hinge on clean, firm power contracts. Our approach integrates generation, wires, and flexibility so communities get reliable, affordable clean energy that scales.

The post-oil playbook starts now

Oil’s growth engine has stalled where it mattered most. Road transport no longer adds the incremental demand it once did, and electrification is the new vector of growth. The countries and companies that win this decade will be those that scale clean generation and build modern grids in lockstep. Canada has the ingredients and a head start. If we match policy intent with execution on interconnections, permitting, and distribution upgrades, we will convert that head start into long-term competitive advantage.

The electrification era is not coming. It is here. The only question is whether we build fast enough to meet it.

—

Dan Roscoe is the CEO of Roswall Development, a renewable energy developer, and President of Renewall Energy, a renewable energy provider, both based in Halifax, Nova Scotia. His work is focused on building the infrastructure for a cleaner, smarter energy future across Canada and beyond.